Poland and Ukraine: Is compulsory marriage over?

Vita gazette –There are storms of separation between Poland and Ukraine, one of the most loyal supporters of the Kyiv administration.  Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia first banned grain imports from Ukraine. Then, it announced that Poland would stop arms aid to Ukraine, which took the country to the International Trade Court. Polish President Andrzej Duda questioned Ukraine’s gratitude for foreign assistance and compared the country to drowning.

The harsh winds blowing between Poland and Ukraine were also reflected internationally. The two countries’ leaders used their visits to the United Nations (UN) Headquarters in front of the world public opinion to attack each other.

“Ukraine is like a drowning person!”

Polish President Andrzej Duda, speaking to reporters, questioned how grateful Ukraine was for foreign aid and compared the country to a drowning person. Duda said, “A drowning person is dangerous because it can pull you to the deepest depths. “He could easily strangle the rescuer,” he said. A few hours later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to Poland. Zelenskiy said that it was worrying that some of his friends in Europe were showing solidarity by “turning a cereal thriller in a political theatre”. The Warsaw administration condemned Zelensky and announced it would stop supplying weapons to its neighbour.

Why did they break up?

The war that started in Ukraine, a major grain producer, caused export routes in the Black Sea to be cut off, leading to export problems. Ukraine’s use of alternative land routes for grain products caused large amounts of grain to reach Central Europe and grain prices to fall in the region’s countries. This caused reactions from the farmers of the countries in the area. The European Union (EU) has temporarily banned grain imports from five countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) to protect local farmers. The EU chose not to extend the ban, which ended on September 15. However, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland decided to maintain the ban. They gave their reason for protecting their country’s production sector and farmers. In response, Kyiv filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated that they did not accept the case filed by Ukraine against Poland at the World Trade Organization and said, “The grain ban will continue. I warned the Ukrainian authorities, “If they escalate the conflict this way, we will add more products to the ban on imports into Polish territory.”

Warsaw Ambassador was summoned to the Ministry.

Poland summoned the Ukrainian Ambassador in Warsaw to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to protest the words of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy regarding the embargo on grain shipments to the European Union (EU) during his speech at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly. In the statement made on the ministry’s website, it was stated that Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Pawel Jablonski conveyed a solid protest for Ukrainian Ambassador Vasyl Zvarych, who was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs upon Zelenskiy’s words regarding the blocking of grain shipments to the EU.

Poland: “We protect our farmers”

“Pressuring Poland in multilateral forums or filing complaints with international courts are not appropriate methods for resolving disputes between the two countries,” the statement said, adding that the steps taken by the Polish government aimed to protect the interests of Polish farmers. It was noted that they could not accept that grain imports from Ukraine would destroy the Polish market.

Zelensky: “They are playing a solidarity game in the political theatre!”

In his speech at the UN General Assembly on September 19, Zelenskiy said, “It is worrying to see how some of our friends in Europe are playing solidarity in political theatre and making thrillers from grain,” referring to the restrictions imposed by Hungary, Poland and Slovakia on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products.

Morawiecki: “No more weapons for Ukraine!”

Speaking to the private television channel Polsat News, Morawiecki said that Poland helps Ukraine against Russia but cannot accept that grain imports from Ukraine destroy the Polish market. Morawiecki stated that the transit of Ukrainian grain would continue and said, “Poland does not bear any costs due to this transit. On the contrary, it can be said that we profit from it,” he said. Noting that Poland will not risk Ukraine’s security, Morawiecki said, “Our military supply centre in Rzeszow, in agreement with the Americans and NATO, fulfils the same role it has already fulfilled and will continue to do.”

Morawiecki stated that they increased their orders for investments in the army and said, “We are no longer sending any weapons to Ukraine because from now on, we will arm ourselves with the most modern weapons.”

The EU’s executive body, the European Commission, says it is not the responsibility of member states to decide on broader trade policy for the bloc’s member states.

What did the Ukrainian Grain Agreement foresee?

After the Russia-Ukraine crisis, 20 million tons of grain waiting for Ukraine’s export remained in the ports. This situation caused food prices to rise rapidly worldwide and caused a problem in countries that import significant amounts of food from Ukraine. In July 2022, an agreement was reached between Russia and Ukraine under the United Nations (UN) mediation. The agreement allowed cargo ships to move along a corridor in the Black Sea. The passage between Ukrainian ports was 310 miles long and 3 miles wide. The deal helped Ukraine export approximately 33 million tons of grain. Thus, global food prices fell by roughly 20 per cent, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. However, Russia withdrew from the agreement due to the continued stance of the USA and the EU on sanctions. According to the UN Food Price Index, grain prices worldwide increased again after Moscow’s decision.

Free grain to Africa…

Meeting with African leaders in July, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to send free grain to at least six African countries – Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Eritrea, Mali, Somalia and Zimbabwe – for the next four months. At the beginning of the month, Putin said that free grain exports would begin “in a few weeks.”

As a result, Poland turned its back.

Some analysts attribute Poland’s decision to the upcoming elections in the country and say that the decision was taken for political reasons. However, considering the EU’s first decision to protect the Central European countries and Hungary and Slovakia acting together with Poland, it also reveals that the grain exported by Ukraine puts the EU in trouble.

Vasravia’s half-turn, since the outbreak of the war among Kyiv’s most ardent supporters, mainly responds to two reasons: one official and one unofficial. As Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki explained, the first is military, given that the country intends to strengthen its army rather than continue to focus on rearming Ukrainian forces. However, behind the scenes but increasingly evident, there is another valuable reason to explain Poland’s cooling off towards Volodymyr Zelensky, and it coincides with the crisis in Ukrainian agricultural imports, specifically wheat. With parliamentary elections around the corner, Polish leaders have no intention of losing the support of local farmers; many are upset that Ukrainian food products have flooded the domestic market, pushing down prices and hurting their means of subsistence. The protectionist decision taken by the EU in this regard and the fact that Hungary and Slovakia accompany Poland, which imposed an import ban from Ukraine, reveals the reality of this problem…

Rival of Moscow and a key member of NATO, Poland will not completely turn its back on Ukraine because it will continue to support Kyiv’s case against Russia. Geopolitics aside, diplomatic relations between the two countries have reached their lowest point in a sensational U-turn of one of the most solid relations since the beginning of the Russian special military operation.

Is Poland’s rhetoric about protecting its country’s producers electioneering or a natural reaction? We will see this after the October 15 elections…