by Andira Vitale

“To be, or not to be, that is the question” is a famous line from William Shakespeare’s Hamlet, Act 3, Scene 1.

The existential question of living in pain (to be) or rebelling and risking death (not to be) is at the root of the indecision that prevents Hamlet from acting (the famous “Hamletian doubt”).

Meloni’s situation during her visit to Washington echoes Hamlet’s doubt, underscoring the complexity of her role and the weight of her responsibilities…

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s visit to the United States takes place in a context in which, as the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has stated, the Western world as we know it does not exist.

Will Meloni be able to play the role of mediator in mending transatlantic relations, seriously compromised by the latest move by US President Donald Trump on the customs wall, who declared: “From now on, think of yourselves in terms of security, military and economic”? Will Italy maintain the balance between the EU and the US with its identity? Will it be able to protect the economic interests of its country within the European Union? Which wing will they prefer?

Meloni will have to simultaneously reiterate Italy’s proximity to the United States, avoid creating an internal rift within the EU, and defend Italian trade interests.

Italy is one of the countries most exposed to tariffs on imports from the EU, which was adopted by Donald Trump on April 2 and was partially suspended after worrying creaks in the bond market. The United States absorbs 10% of Italian exports. If the Trump administration were to confirm the 20% tariff on the EU after the pause expires in July, the losses for Italian exporters would be significant. Nor would the picture be much rosier if the current threshold of 10% were to remain (around 1% before April 2), to which 25% duties on aluminium, steel and cars must be added. Even more worrying is the prospect that the tariffs will slow global growth. The Meloni government has already halved its growth prospects for this year.

Meloni cannot start bilateral negotiations with the United States because trade policy is a prerogative of the Union. Furthermore, granting exemptions to Italian products would create an internal fracture within the EU, isolating Italy and reducing its influence in negotiations on critical issues such as the easing of the Stability and Growth Pact or using common resources to support defence investments. Meloni must seek to dialogue with Washington on issues that can gain the support of its European partners. The European Commission, which sought a compromise taking advantage of the pause declared by Trump, has decided to suspend the sanctions to be applied in retaliation for the April 2 customs duties and to suspend the implementation of the countermeasures to be adopted on the duties on steel, aluminium and automobiles previously approved. The government also believes that implementing counter-tariffs will increase the damage. It has also stated that it is always in favour of negotiation. However, it does not seem that the United States, under the Trump administration, will tear down its fiscal walls!

Accepting American demands would increase Europe’s dependence on the United States at a time when calls for greater autonomy are becoming more urgent, highlighting the gravity of the situation.

We can assume that Meloni will insist on two main themes in the talks to strengthen transatlantic relations: reaching a consensus on competition with China and reaching an agreement on increasing imports of American goods into the EU.

Meloni’s room for manoeuvre is limited!

One area where these objectives may be reconcilable is communications technologies: from 5G to Starlink, Elon Musk’s satellite communications system, the Trump administration frames the purchase of American goods as a choice between Washington and Beijing for Europeans. The Americans are also interested in increasing sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and weapons systems to Europeans. The Italian government may accept Starlink, but other European governments are reluctant to do so. The issue of digital and technological sovereignty is increasingly present in internal debates and EU legal regulations. It is also challenging to remove barriers to importing American agricultural products grown with hormones, chlorinated or genetically modified organisms…

Prime Minister Meloni could promise to buy American LNG and weapons for the European market. But this would cost even more. Meloni could promise Washington to fight for a less aggressive application of digital regulations (which the Commission is already partly doing) against the taxation of Big Tech (a national issue but one that has weight in the European debate) and for the removal or at least relaxation of environmental regulations (also disliked by many European industrial players).

Meloni must create a space for convergence between American and European interests. Meloni could return from Washington with significant gains, instilling hope for the future of US-EU relations. But in the long run, reconciling her ideological and strategic beliefs with Italy’s interest in more open trade and a more cohesive and resilient Europe may become impossible…